Twice in a decade in San Francisco, a candidate who initially ranked third emerged as the victor. Here’s what the new ballot system could mean in NYC’s mayoral contest with the race in flux.
BY SAMANTHA MALDONADO MAY 5, 2021, 7:12PM EDT
Andrew Yang’s campaign is touting his frontrunner status in the race for mayor based on a new internal poll — but might be unpleasantly surprised at the results of the ultimate ranked-choice vote.
The poll, conducted by Slingshot Strategies, found that 42% of likely Democratic voters planned to rank Yang in one of their three top ballot slots. Some 37% said they’d put Scott Stringer in the top three, while 34% would place Eric Adams in that echelon.
Slingshot surveyed 842 Democratic voters over a week in April, shortly before an allegation of - misconduct against Stringer cost the city comptroller some major endorsements and raised questions about his viability in the primary.
For the first time in a citywide election, New Yorkers will use ranked choice voting and place their top five picks, in order, on their June 22 primary ballots.
The new system could shake up predicted results.
In more than 96% of ranked choice elections in the U.S. since 2004, the winner was the first round leader, according to data compiled by FairVote. But history shows cases where the No. 2 and even No. 3 choices won.
Meanwhile, an unranked poll out Wednesday from comptroller candidate Corey Johnson’s campaign shows Adams in the top slot, with Yang and Stringer close behind.
“The three top choices are bunched together, which, frankly, could be the opening act to ranked choice voting drama,” said Hank Sheinkopf, a Democratic political consultant. “If Stringer is able to get his wind back, he’s in position to do what his strategy was originally: to be in second place and to win under an instant runoff.”